Piper Sandler managing director and senior economist Jake Oubina weighs in on tariff deadlines, Fed chair nominations and what it all means for U.S. investors on ‘Mornings with Maria.’
President Donald Trump claimed on Sunday that tariffs are driving more than $15 trillion in new U.S. investment and that if courts should strike them down, the U.S. would likely become a “Third World Nation.”
Trump’s post comes in direct response to a federal appeals court delivering a major legal setback to his trade policy, declaring most of his sweeping tariffs unlawful under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA.
The decision supports earlier rulings by the U.S. Court of International Trade.
TRUMP SAYS US WOULD BE ‘DESTROYED’ WITHOUT TARIFF CASH
U.S. President Donald Trump holds up a chart of “reciprocal tariffs” while speaking during a “Make America Wealthy Again” trade announcement event in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images / Getty Images)
Although they are still in effect, the tariffs face an uncertain future unless the Supreme Court intervenes. The stay delays enforcement until mid-October.
Trump added that if the “Radical Left Court” struck down the tariffs, almost all the anticipated investments would collapse, making the U.S. a “third-world nation” with no path back to greatness.
“If a Radical Left Court is allowed to terminate these Tariffs, almost all of this investment, and much more, will be immediately cancelled! In many ways, we would become a Third World Nation, with no hope of GREATNESS again. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!!! ” Trump wrote.
US President Donald Trump during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2025 (Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Independent analyses have found zero evidence to support Trump’s $15 trillion figure. According to Reuters and FactCheck.org, the White House’s own “Trump Effect” website lists about $2.6 trillion in announced investments, with a broader tally of $5.1 trillion when including pledges – still far below Trump’s claim.
President Donald Trump, joined by FDA Commissioner Martin Makary, National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director Jay Bhattacharya, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid (Tom Brenner for The Washington Post via Getty Images / Getty Images)
TRUMP CALLS TARIFF WINDFALL ‘SO BEAUTIFUL TO SEE’ AS CASH SAILS IN
In his post, Trump pushed what he described as the economic benefits of his trade policies, boasting that prices are “WAY DOWN,” and that inflation is almost nonexistent due to the tariffs pouring “Trillions” into the economy.
“Prices are ‘WAY DOWN’ in the USA, with virtually no inflation. With the exception of ridiculous, corrupt politician approved ‘Windmills,’ which are killing every State and Country that uses them, Energy prices are falling, ‘big time,’” he said.
He also pointed out that gasoline is at a low and that tariffs are making “America STRONG and RESPECTED AGAIN!!!.”
A gas pump is inserted inside an Audi vehicle at a Mobil gas station in Beverly Boulevard in West Hollywood, California, U.S. (REUTERS/Bing Guan / Reuters Photos)
“Gasoline is at many year lows. All of this despite magnificent Tariffs, which are bringing in Trillions of Dollars from Countries that took total advantage of us, for decades, and are making America STRONG and RESPECTED AGAIN!!!,” he added.
A chart comparing 2024 and 2025 daily tariff revenue using Penn Wharton’s Budget Model based on data from U.S. Department of the Treasury. Numbers not adjusted for inflation. (Penn Wharton Budget Model / Fox News / Fox News)
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However, economists dispute that characterization, pointing to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks that current annual tariff revenues are closer to $500 billion, collected from U.S. importers rather than foreign governments. The Congressional Budget Office projects a total of $2–2.8 trillion over the next decade, while official Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that inflation, though cooling, hasn’t been “virtually nonexistent.” Analysts say the numbers highlight a stark contrast between Trump’s rhetoric and the economic consensus.
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