Oracle (ORCL) wrapped up another headline quarter that lit up the tape in a big way.
Following its hugely impressive earnings print, Oracle stock ripped 30%+ as investors digested an AI-cloud story with real teeth.
On the numbers, we saw its sales rise 11% to $14.93 billion, with total cloud sales hitting $7.2 billion (+27% year-over-year), and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) jumped 54% to $3.3 billion.
Management kept the foot on the gas with a +77% fiscal year 2026 OCI growth outlook ($18 billion), while flagging heavy-but-productive capex at $35 billion. However, the headline numbers weren’t the story; the forward setup was.
Enter Jefferies’ Brent Thill, who just reset his Oracle price target on a critical driver for Oracle’s long-term trajectory. For perspective, Thill is ranked #186 of 10,018 analysts by Tipranks, with a 66% success rate and a more than 14% average return.
His logic centers around a gauge that, in his view, changes the company’s trajectory from “solid” to “durably accelerating.
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Oracle’s backlog boom drives Jefferies’ bullish call
Jefferies analyst Brent Thill reiterated his buy rating on Oracle stock, while raising his price target to $360 from $270.
He frames the tremendous Q1 setup as a backlog-driven growth story, with its remaining performance obligations (RPO) stealing the show.
Related: Investors write off Oracle earnings miss as management promises stratospheric growth
The RPO figure at a whopping $455 billion blew past expectations and topped the company’s hyperscaler competition. For Thill, that number underscores the importance of Oracle’s AI and multicloud momentum.
For context, RPO is basically Oracle’s backlog of signed, binding contracts that it hasn’t recognized as sales yet.
Moreover, though Oracle left its fiscal year 2026 near-term outlook unchanged, Thill sees long-term forecasts as mostly conservative and primed for upward revisions.
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Additionally, a flurry of analysts, apart from Thill, also upped their price targets on Oracle post-earnings.
Analysts’ recently increased price targets for Oracle:
- UBS (Karl Keirstead): Price target raised to $360 from $280, buy, on the back of the $317 billion backlog fueling 14x cloud expansion to FY30. Also, the massive $100 billion OpenAI boost is a critical driver.
- Evercore ISI (Kirk Materne): Price target raised to $340 from $270, outperform with a robust backlog supporting quicker revenue/profit; also, the OCI spend strengthens AI position.
- Cantor Fitzgerald (Thomas Blakey): Price target raised to $400 from $271, overweight. With RPO jumping 359% year-over-year, the contracts effectively boost cloud visibility.
Oracle CEO flags backlog topping half a trillion as cloud demand soars
Oracle CEO Safra Catz turned heads during the Q1 earnings call after laying down a headline number on the table.
“At the end of Q1, remaining performance obligations… [were] $455 billion. This is up 359% from last year and up $317 billion from the end of Q4.” She added, “RPO will likely grow to exceed $0.5 trillion.”
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Catz paired that backlog comment with a massive multi-year OCI ramp.
“We now expect Oracle Cloud Infrastructure will grow 77% to $18 billion this fiscal year and then increase to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion over the following four years.”
Also, she flagged capex to be around $35 billion, stressing that it’s mostly “revenue-generating equipment,” and added that with greater capacity coming online, Oracle will efficiently convert the massive RPO backlog into growing sales and profits.
Co-founder Larry Ellison framed the demand side, explaining that “AI is fundamentally transforming Oracle,” and “the AI inferencing market will be much, much larger than the AI training market.”
The implications are clear — with a half-trillion-scale backlog along with greater capacity coming online, there’s a much clearer path from bookings to sales.
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