Even with mortgage rates sliding to their lowest levels in nearly a year, America’s housing market is still waiting for its comeback moment. A new report from Redfin shows that cheaper monthly payments — down to $2,593 on the median U.S. home — aren’t sparking a rush of buyers back into the market.
Sure, pending sales have ticked up a bit (just 1.6% from last year), but overall, most people are still playing it safe and waiting to see what happens next.
So, if you’ve been waiting months for mortgage rates to finally budge, hoping it’ll be the break that gets you into a home, well, here we are — sort of.
Rates are down to their lowest in nearly a year, but there is no stampede of buyers – instead, the September 2025 Redfin report shows a slow trickle of activity.
Buyers are “on rate watch,” as Redfin’s agent Mariah O’Keefe puts it, hoping mortgage rates will finally dip below 6%. Sellers are adjusting, too, with more willingness to negotiate or price their homes fairly to attract cautious buyers.
Image source: Getty Images
CPI & interest rates factor into housing costs
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a common measure of inflation, rose by about 2.9% over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, still higher than pre-pandemic years, and part of what’s keeping monthly housing costs elevated.
- The weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently 6.56%, a 10-month low, but buyers want to see it go lower before they make a move.
- Most experts expect interest rates to stay in the 6–7% range for now, Redfin says, with small cuts potentially coming later if economic metrics like jobs data give the Fed reason to ease up.
There is some mortgage relief, but no housing market comeback in sight
The median monthly payment for a U.S. home clocks in at $2,593 — a little easier to swallow than it was earlier this year.
But before anyone pops a bottle of champagne, Redfin says pending home sales only bumped up 1.6% compared to last year.
So yes, more deals are happening, but buyers are still hesitant. Many are glued to the rates, hoping for that magic sub-6% number. Meanwhile, sellers seem willing to negotiate or set their price close to market.
“Nationally, now is a good time to buy, if you can afford it. Prices keep climbing, but with lower mortgage rates and significantly more inventory, buyers have an upper hand in negotiations,” Redfin Cheif Economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement. “A volatile economy is making everyone uneasy, though, and local markets vary widely. Buyers serious about making offers should consult a local agent and be confident in their finances and future income.”
Housing inventory trends
Inventory varies across the country. Nationwide, the total number of homes for sale is up 11.3% — but new listings are just barely nudging higher, up 1.1% year-over-year. Fewer sellers want to give up a low mortgage rate, so inventory’s growing slowly.
Homes are sitting on the market longer, too. The typical sale takes 44 days to close, up a week from last year. Only about 31% of homes go under contract in two weeks, down from 33%, and just a quarter of homes sell for over asking price. Buyers aren’t rushing, and sellers know they need to stay practical.
Related: Mortgage rates react as bets rise on Fed interest rate cut
U.S. home-sale prices are still creeping higher — up 1.6% in the last year, with the median sitting at $392,738, according to Redfin. And some cities are hot, while others are cooling, the company says:
Biggest housing price jumps nationally:
- Detroit, MI (+12.4%)
- Cleveland, OH (+8.8%)
- Pittsburgh, PA (+8.2%)
- New Brunswick, NJ (+7.8%)
Biggest housing price drops:
- Dallas, TX (-3.6%)
- West Palm Beach, FL (-2.0%)
- Portland, OR (-1.8%)
- Orlando, FL (-1.4%)
- San Francisco, CA (-0.8%)
Advice for homebuyers and sellers in today’s market
If you’re hunting for a home, don’t bank on rates dropping much more — today’s rates already reflect the big economic news everyone’s expecting.
Waiting out the market could leave you empty-handed if rates go back up.
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If you’re selling, price your place competitively and be open to offers. Well-maintained single-family homes in good spots still command interest, but condos or fixer-uppers might sit for weeks unless they’re priced right.
So, is the housing market wild or just weird right now? Kind of both.
Redfin’s data shows a market with cautious moves, slow gains, and a lot of folks just watching from the sidelines. It’s a step toward balance — but not a surge.
Related: Housing analyst predicts mortgage rate changes will shift the housing market in 2025
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