UK inflation is expected to rise from 3.8% in July to hit a peak of 4% in September, and Hargreaves Lansdown says it may have hit that level in August.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at the wealth manager, says: “Just like the weather, the temperature for inflation looks set to have been steamy in August.
“With food and grocery prices still on the boil there’s not likely to have been much cooling off.”
At 3.8% UK inflation was the highest in the Group of Seven advanced economies, and last month the BoE forecast it would reach 4% in September before returning to target in the second quarter of 2027.
Capital Economics expects CPI to come in at 3.9% in August and forecasts that September’s CPI, which is due out next month, will rise to 4.2% versus BoE expectations of 4%.
The BoE cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 4% in August, but financial markets see almost no chance of a rate cut this week and only a roughly 40% chance of a cut later this year, according to LSEG data.
While the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce its first rate cut of the year on Wednesday the overwhelming consensus is that UK interest rates will be held at 4% at Thursday’s meeting of the Bank’s monetary policy committee.
Among corporate announcements, there will be two key housing company statements. Barratt Redrow’s full-year results to the end of June were well trailed in July’s trading update so attention may focus more on any outlook statement that chief executive David Thomas feels able to give, says Russ Mould of AJ Bell.
The company is running a £100 million share buyback and the analysts’ consensus is looking for a dividend per share of 16.8p, up from 16.2p in the year to June 2024.
Scotland-based Springfield Properties said in July’s update that private housing sales remain subdued but it expects a substantial increase in profit before tax for the year following a series of land sales.
The housebuilder is forecasting an increase in revenue to £280m (2024: £266m), with profits driven by the “highly profitable” offloading of 2,480 plots on six sites to Barratt Redrow.
Shares in fashion and home furnishings retailer Next, which reports full-year figures on Thursday powered to a new all-time high this summer, although they have slipped a little since, despite a relaunch of a share buyback and the possibility of a special dividend early in 2026.
DIARY
Monday 15 September
- Full-year results from Craneware
- First-half results from S4 Capital and Bango
- Rightmove UK house price index
Tuesday 16 September
- Full-year results from Kier, MJ Gleeson and Springfield Properties
- First-half results from Trustpilot, Personal Group, Headlam and Corero Network Security
- UK unemployment, employment and wage growth
Wednesday 17 September
- Interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve
- Full-year results from Barratt Redrow, McBride and Supermarket Income REIT
- First-half results from IP Group and Facilities by ADF
- Trading statement from Moonpig
- UK inflation
- EU inflation
Thursday 18 September
- Full-year results from Next, Renishaw
- First-half results from Capricorn Energy, M&C Saatchi, Judges Scientific and Maintel
- Interest rate decision from the Bank of England
Friday 19 September
- GfK UK consumer confidence
- UK retail sales
- UK government borrowing
#Inflation #rise #Barratt #Redrow #Springfield #Daily #Business