Pubs chain JD Wetherspoon’s shares are broadly flat over the year, even though the pubs group, with an estate of around 800 sites, is expected to report record sales in the year to July 2025.
The issue is therefore profit, say AJ Bell analysts, where increased wages and utility bills are having an impact. Chair Tim Martin said last year’s increase in national insurance contributions cost the group £60 million, or £1,500 per pub per week.
He also continues to rail against VAT and business rates, or at least the different treatment applied to pubs and supermarkets.
July’s trading statement saw Mr Martin note that full-year results would be in line with expectations, where analysts are currently looking for sales of just over £2.1 billion and pre-tax income of £80 million, compared to £2.0 billion and £61 million a year ago.
Analysts are looking for an increase in pre-tax profit to £84 million, but that would still be below the pre-pandemic high, even though sales are expected to be some £400 million higher than in 2019.
The company returned to the dividend list in 2024 after four blank years and it has also started a share buyback programme. Analysts expect a final dividend of 8p per share to take the total to 12p, the same as last year.
AG Barr
Irn-Bru manufacturer AG Barr added to its holding in the health drinks market in the summer by taking a majority stake in Innate-Essence, a company in the functional shots market.
AG Barr paid an initial £15 million for a 50.1% stake in Innate-Essence which is the home of The Turmeric Co, providing the UK’s only clinically-proven raw turmeric shots.
Functional shots are carving out a strong place in the beverage market, gaining popularity for their ability to deliver a quick energy boost or tackle issues such as immunity and digestion. In 2024 the market was valued at $2.1 billion, and it is forecast to grow to $3.5 billion by 2031.
Analysts will be looking for any indication of further planned growth in this sector when it reports half-year figures.
The sale of the Strathmore brand and the Forfar production site to Welsh company Tŷ Nant is unlikely to show in Tuesday’s figures, though full-year figures will show dent to revenue.
First half group revenue is expected to be c.£228m, c.3% up on the prior year (H1 2024/25: £221.3m).
Overall, the company’s trading momentum increased as H1 progressed, with several record volume weeks in Q2.
In July’s update chief executive Euan Sutherland said: “We are pleased to report continued revenue growth and strong profit growth in the first half of the financial year.
“Trading improved during H1 and we enter H2 with strong momentum and continued progress on margin improvement as our strategic initiatives continue to deliver.
Greggs
Shares in Greggs have lost half of their value in the past year, scorched by July’s profit warning that resulted from the hot summer.
Chief executive Roisin Currie said weak high street footfall and the phasing of increased costs also contributed as the company built a new national distribution centre in Kettering and continued to add to its store estate.
Questions as to whether Greggs has expanded too far, too fast and made its menu too complicated have added to wider worries over the state of the UK economy, say analysts at AJ Bell.
In its update for the three months to the end of September, analysts and investors will watch out Ms Currie’s comments on profits after she cut forecasts for full-year operating profit to a ‘small decline’ in 2025, compared to prior estimates of ‘progress.’ The analysts’ consensus is currently looking for £188 million this year, down 4% from 2024’s total.
Tesco
In a marked contrast to Greggs, shares in Tesco have roared to their highest mark since 2010.
They have been helped by the woes of Morrison and Asda, which are struggling under the debt burdens shovelled on to them by their private equity buyers.
Tesco has picked up a precious eight-tenths of a point of market share over the past year, according to Kantar Worldpanel.
Those gains helped Tesco to rack up double-digit percentage gains in both adjusted earnings per share and dividend per share in its last fiscal year, and the grocery giant maintained its strong momentum in the first three months of the year to February 2026.
June’s trading update revealed 4.7% like-for-like sales growth in the UK in the first quarter and 4.6% across the whole group.
Analysts have attributed chief executive Ken Murphy’s lower guidance on operating profit to a grocery price war, although the sale of the Edinburgh-based bank will have a role to play, say AJ Bell analysts.
Either way, analysts expect a slight drop in the group operating margin in the year to February 2026, thanks also to input cost pressure, notably wages, national insurance contributions and food prices.
Consensus estimates suggest the grocery giant will raise its full-year dividend to 14.2p a share from 13.7p, so an increase in the interim distribution is likely. The first-half payment a year ago, by way of a benchmark, was 4.25p a share.
DIARY
Monday 29 September
- Nationwide UK house price index
- UK mortgage approvals
Tuesday 30 September
- First-half results from AG Barr
- BRC UK shop price index
Wednesday 1 October
- Full-year results from James Halstead
- Trade Update (Q3) from Greggs
- EU inflation
- OPEC+ meeting
Thursday 2 October
- First-half results from Tesco
Friday 3 October
- Full-year results from JD Wetherspoon
- Purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for service industries from Asia, the EU, UK and USA
- US non-farm payrolls, wage growth and unemployment
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