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Happy Monday. This is TheStreet’s Stock Market Today for Sept. 29, 2025. You can follow the latest updates on the market here in our daily live blog.
Update: 7:15 a.m. ET
Everything Happening (That We Know Of)
Good morning. Taken together, the third quarter has had its twists and turns, thanks to a bounce in earnings quality, heavily-watched economic data reports, and speculation around the Fed’s cut. It’s also waning, with just two more trading days left until we close this fascinating chapter in markets.
Heading into the fourth quarter, stocks are sitting just shy of all-time highs. Investors remain radically bullish, pumping up equity valuations to levels not seen since 2020 — and even before then, by some measures. And now, thanks to a slew of factors, market participants are banking on up to two more Fed cuts through year-end.
Really, the only thing that’s looking a little awry are rising odds of a government shutdown, which could cast shadows on the U.S. markets if it tees off on Oct. 1. It could soften excitement in the markets heading into the historically strongest quarter of the year; even more so if it lasts awhile.
Shutdowns have not historically put much of a dent in the markets or economy, but Barclays warns that it could delay the release of key economic data (like jobs reports, CPI, and retail sales) and temporarily distort GDP or job data. It could also result in the furloughing of thousands of government employees, tilting the Fed towards more easing.
All of that is probably not fantastic news, but it’ll have to compete with the start of a new earnings season, which is seen continuing the bounce back from April’s tariff tiff. Speaking of which, let’s touch on the companies and insights we’ll be wrapping Q3 with:
Earnings Today: Carnival, Jefferies, Vail Resorts
Despite it being Monday, Nasdaq says that we’ll be good for 27 earnings reports today, including Carnival (CCL) , Jefferies Financial Group JEF, and Vail Resorts (MTN) .
Here’s the six firms with a market cap over $1 billion:
Economic Events & Data
Today, we’ll hear commentary from five Fed Governors, starting with Chris Waller and Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) this morning.
After their two cents, we’ll get two data points: Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Index. Both have seen declines in three out of the last four months.
Rounding out the day, the Fed’s Alberto Musalem (St. Louis), John Williams (New York), and Raphael Bostic (Atlanta) will deliver remarks.
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