The SNP has been buoyed by the victory for Plaid Cymru in the Caerphilly by-election, which saw off a strong challenge from Reform UK and sent a powerful message to Labour.
SNP depute Westminster leader Pete Wishart said the result “will send shockwaves well beyond Welsh politics” and points to both Reform and Labour being defeated in next May’s elections in both nations.
The result saw a swing of 27% from Labour, which has held the seat in Westminster since the 1920s and in the Senedd since it began.
Pollsters had predicted a win for Nigel Farage’s party but its candidate Llyr Powell fell short with 12,113 votes. Lindsay Whittle won the seat for Plaid Cymru with 15,961. Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe trailed in third with just 3,713 votes.
In 2021, when the seat was last contested, Labour’s candidate, Hefin David, received 13,289 votes (46%).
Following last night’s success, Mr Whittle said: “The Labour Party vote has just vanished into thin air,” adding that support for Reform UK “died tonight”.
Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, said there was an element of voters “wanting to stop Reform and showing that we could stop Reform here in Wales”.
He said there was “deep, deep disillusionment with Labour, both on the UK level and at a Welsh government level, and the people are looking for new leadership”.
Mr Powell said: “We have taken a lot of votes from Labour here tonight, momentum is building and we look on to [Senedd elections] next May.
Reform’s head of policy Zia Yusuf said that Reform’s surge in support from 1.7% of the constituency vote in 2021 to 36% was “remarkable.”
Sir John Curtice said while Reform UK would be disappointed by not winning the seat, the result was more ominous for Labour. He disagreed with Plaid’s verdict on the challenge from Reform.
“Reform will be disappointed in coming second with 36%, but I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst,” he said.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Labour Cabinet Office minister, said Welsh voters were frustrated about the “pace of change” from the Labour government, saying the party would have a “tough fight on our hands” in elections next May.
“This is a disappointing result for us. There’s no shying away from that,” he said.
The SNP said the result shows voters in Scotland and Wales will have the “perfect chance to beat Nigel Farage’s Reform Party and remove Keir Starmer at the very same time”.
It comes as countless internal briefings within the Labour Party have acknowledged that the Prime Minister Keir Starmer will be swiftly removed from office if Labour suffers heavy and historic defeats in Scotland and in Wales next May.
Mr Wishart said: “This is an historic win for Plaid Cymru and will send shockwaves well beyond Welsh politics – it points the path to the opportunity voters will have at next year’s Holyrood and Senedd elections.
“The historic combination of an SNP majority in Scotland and a Plaid Cymru victory in Wales is the perfect chance to beat Nigel Farage’s Reform Party and remove Keir Starmer at the very same time – you’d be hard pressed to find a better two for one offer.
“And that’s exactly the offer and the opportunity that will be on ballot papers in Scotland and in Wales next May – achieving that historic result would have the most powerful impact on a broken Westminster system that is so far removed from the priorities of our peoples.
“For my own nation it would also set us on course to be given the chance of a fresh start with independence – free from Westminster’s self-serving chaos.”
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