Yes, gold has had a terrific runup in 2025. Yes, the metal is up about 39% on the year, closing on Friday at $3,649.40 per troy ounce.
That’s a better return than any of the major stock-market indexes — even better than bitcoin, which was up 24% on the year as of Saturday.
Gold is up nearly 5% in September alone, and there’s talk gold could hit $4,000 before too long..
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Oh, and here’s a fun fact. On an inflation-adjusted basis, gold has reclaimed all that it lost after gold prices touched $850 an ounce in January 1980. That was 45 years ago, but who’s counting?
Yet, before you rush off and pour all your available cash into bullion, take a breath and think the idea through.
And this applies to the stock market, too. Fact is, stocks have risen right along with gold and right along with bitcoin since the April bottom. The Nasdaq Composite, land of tech stocks, has jumped 50% from that low.
For now, the momentum looks to have legs and should get more fuel Wednesday when the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate on Wednesday.
Markets suggest a rate cut of 0.25%, bringing the federal funds rate down to 4% to 4.25% with cuts in October and December, too. The fed funds rate is what the Fed wants member banks to charge one another for short-term loans and is the basis for U.S. interest rates.
One hope is that bond investors will support lower rates and boost the housing markets.
What you don’t want is overstimulating the economy.
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Watch out: The market may be getting overbought
But gold and semiconductors also suggest another reason to keep an eye on the markets.
Gold’s relative strength index was above 75 on Friday, a strong suggestion it has become overbought. In fact, the metal went nowhere this past week once it hit a record $3,715 on Tuesday.
The SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund (GLD) has been stuck ever since reaching $338.31 per troy ounce on Tuesday. Yet, its RSI is at 76.8%. The ETF owns gold directly and is one of the world’s largest owners of the metal.
Also showing big gains this year:
- Newmont (NEM) , up 113%. RSI: 78.3.
- Kinross Gold KCG, up 151%. RSI: 81.6.
- Agrico-Eagle Mines (AEM) , up 96%. RSI: 76
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was also frothy with an RSI of 77, partly the result of Oracle’s (ORCL) blowout earnings on Thursday. Oracle’s RSI was at 83 before the earnings report. The shares fell 5% on Friday, and the RSI fell to 64.
Cracker Barrell gets to talk about the logo battle
Shares of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) slumped sharply and shockingly in August after the company announced its plan to change its logo from old-timey funky to something more sleek.
Customers hated-hated-hated the change. Hated it so much that the shares fell nearly 20% before the company junked the new-sign idea.
The shares soon recovered most of the loss, but the recovery was short-lived.
Cracker Barrel has been struggling with slowing sales and profits for some time, and the stock slide soon resumed. As of Friday, the shares were down 70% from their peak in April 2021.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
The company reports fourth-quarter results after Wednesday’s close, and one can bet there’ll be some explainin’ about the logo debacle and how the company can turn itself around.
The revenue estimate is $856 million, down 4.3% from a year ago, with earnings projected at 77 cents, down 21.4%.
More Wall Street Analysts:
- Weekly Roundup: Bracing for a ‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the News’ Fed event
- Analysts turn heads with Nvidia rival’s stock target after earnings
- Rare signal to send stock market surging next year, says veteran analyst
- Analysts unveil surprising Dell stock target after slump
The markets end week higher
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index hit an intraday high of 6,600 on Friday before slipping at the close after four straight gains. Still, the index was up 1.6% for the week, even with the slip.
The other major indexes’ performances on the week:
- NASDAQ Composite Index, up 2%.
- Nasdaq-100 Index, up 2%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 0.95%.
- Russell 2000 Index, up 0.25%.
The week ahead is all about how markets react to the Fed decision on Wednesday. Traders will pay close attention other reports, including retail sales on Tuesday, housing starts and building permits on Wednesday and jobless claims and U.S. leading economic indicators on Thursday.
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FedEx, General Mills and Lennar earnings on tap
This is a week of few earnings: just 32 for the entire week, including Cracker Barrel.
FedEx
Shipping giant FedEx (FDX) is the biggest of the bunch, reporting first-quarter results after Thursday’s close with plenty talk about, especially dealing with the complexity of Trump Administration tariffs.
The shares were downgraded because Wall Street analysts believe FedEx will be dealing with lower volumes of imports especially after the president did away with tariff-free permissions on small, low-value shipments into the United States by the likes of Temu and Shein.
Bank of America downgraded the stock from buy to hold on Thursday. Analyst Ken Hoexter downgraded United Parcel Service (UPS) from hold to sell as well for the same reason.
FedEx shares are down 18% this year.
The first-quarter earnings estimate for FedEx is $3.65, up 1.4%. Revenue of $21.7 billon would be up 0.5% from a year ago. The company will be raising freight rates in January.
General Mills
General Mills (GIS) reports fiscal-first-quarter results before Wednesday’s open.
The revenue estimate: $4.5 billion, down 7% from a year ago. Earnings estimate: 81 cents, down 24%.
Lennar
Home builder Lennar (LEN) , one of the biggest U.S. builders, reports before Thursday’s open. The guidance may get a boost with a Fed rate cut.
Reason: The cost to buy down mortgage payments to make a sale will cost the company less. Revenue estimate: $9.06 billion, down 3.8% from a year ago. Earnings estimate: $2.11.
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