Labour facing slump as Reform on track for majority – Daily Business

Sir Keir Starmer’s hopes of lifting spirits at the Labour conference have suffered a severe setback after a new poll predicts its worst electoral defeat and an outright majority for Nigel Farage’s Reform.

A survey of nearly 20,000 voters showed Reform would win 373 seats if an election were held tomorrow.

That represents a majority of 96 for Mr Farage’s party, bigger than the 80 seat majority secured by Boris Johnson in the Conservatives’ landslide victory in 2019.

Labour would lose 321 of the 411 seats it won last year, leaving it with just 90, making it the smallest parliamentary Labour Party since 1931.

The poll of 19,520 voters was conducted by the think tank More in Common between 8 August and 15 September and is believed to be the first to predict an outright majority for Reform, which currently has only five MPs.

It follows a YouGov poll on Friday which which put Reform on track to become the largest party in a hung parliament, with 311 seats and Labour on 144.

The findings of both polls will inevitably lead to calls for a massive shift in Labour policy and how the government communicates its message.

Making the situation worse for Labour is that the More Common poll suggests most of the cabinet would lose their seats, including Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, Wes Streeting, the health secretary, Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, and Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary.

The Conservatives are also given little to cheer about as they would be pushed into fourth place on 41 seats, behind the Liberal Democrats on 69, vindicating the message from Reform supporters that the Tories are in terminal decline.

Sir Keir Starmer clearly has a massive task on his hands to lift a party that swept to victory last summer as voters bought into his Change agenda.

But he and his party have suffered a severe backlash from a series of poorly-conceived and executed policy decisions. These include the cut to winter fuel payments, a failure to stop illegal immigrants, refusal to honour the party’s pledge to the Waspi campaigners and a Budget that has led to thousands of job losses.

The revelations around deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, who was sacked from the Cabinet, undermined the Prime Minister’s promise of a more trustworthy government. The subsequent sacking of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador over his links to Jeffrey Epstein added to the sense of a party in disarray. This weekend’s announcement of a digital ID scheme has divided the nation.

The latest poll shows only 16% of Britons think Labour has improved the country, while 50% say the government has made things worse.

Almost half (46%) think that Mr Farage is being realistic about the state of the country, while 36% believe he is being too negative and talking down the country.

Labour is now suffering from internal battles with Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, being touted as a potential leader.

While Labour implodes, Nigel Farage is basking in a surge in popularity that could see him take occupancy of Number Ten. He is also gaining ground in Scotland where he is on track to disrupt the SNP-Labour hold on voters.

Luke Tryl, the director of More in Common, said: “Nigel Farage has completely upended the political map of Britain. From just five seats at the last election, our MRP suggests in an election tomorrow his party would command a majority close to 100.

“Meanwhile Labour would fall from a triple-figure majority to a historic low of under 100 seats, and the Tories would cease to exist as a meaningful political force.”